2011 NFL Mock Draft

The NFL Draft is just a day away, and so many picks are still up in the air. We know Cam Newton is going Number 1. Or do we? Carolina has said they won't announce their decision until they're on the clock. Here's my best guess at how the first round will play out on Thursday night (although I think there will be a lot of trades)...

1 Panthers	CAM NEWTON, QB, Auburn He might be the most dynamic player to ever come into the NFL. Newton has a lot of risk—he ran a simplified offense at Auburn and won’t be able to run like against NFL defenses like he did in college. But his ability to simply shed would-be tacklers and make plays is absolutely special.
2 Broncos	PATRICK PETERSON, CB, LSU They could go with run-stuffing defensive tackle Marcell Dareus here, but new team president John Elway knows the NFL is a pass-first league right now. There are few true shutdown corners in the NFL, but with his size and amazing speed and athleticism, Peterson has a chance to be one of them.
3 Bills	VON MILLER, OLB, Texas A&M The Bills got up close and personal with Miller when their coaching staff worked with him for a week at the Senior Bowl. He’s not only incredibly fast as a pass-rusher coming around the corner, but he has amazing balance and flexibility. That allows him to make moves without having to slow down. He’ll give the Bills D the top-notch pass rusher they’ve needed since Aaron Schobel retired.
4 Bengals	A.J. GREEN, WR, Georgia The Bengals need a quarterback since Carson Palmer swears he won’t play for them again. But I don’t see another QB worthy of a top five pick. I expect them to either wait until the second round, or trade up into the late first-round to get their next signal-caller. Meanwhile, picking up Green would be a definite upgrade for the passing game. He’s not only big and fast, but he has that special ability to come up with the tough catches downfield.
5 Cardinals	MARCELL DAREUS, DT, Alabama Dareus is one of the safest picks in this draft; he can play either defensive tackle spot, or (as he would in Arizona) line up as a 3-4 defensive end. He could go higher than this. But because his strength is stuffing the run, rather than rushing the passer, I don’t think he has elite value in the pass-happy modern day NFL.
6 Browns	NICK FAIRLEY, DT, Auburn The Browns are transitioning from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense, meaning they need defensive linemen. I know a lot of people love Dareus, but I think Fairley is the best d-lineman available in this draft. He was absolutely unblockable for Auburn last season. He has a ton of value because of his ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks.
7 49ers	ROBERT QUINN, DE/OLB, North Carolina A quarterback is a possibility here, but new head coach Jim Harbaugh would be better off trying to trade down, or trade later picks to move into the late first-round for a guy like Christian Ponder. Quinn fills a major need as a pass rusher, and he has the athleticism to play outside linebacker in San Fran’s 3-4 defense.
8 Titans	BLAINE GABBERT, QB, Missouri The Titans are in need of a franchise quarterback now that they’ve given up on draft bust Vince Young. Gabbert might be the most naturally gifted passer in this draft class, and he has the size and athleticism to succeed. Like Newton though, he comes from a simplified college offense that didn’t take a lot of chances. On top of that, I think he panics under pressure too often.
9 Cowboys	TYRON SMITH, OT, USC Smith has the incredible athleticism, at 300 lbs., to be a franchise left tackle. He only played the right side at USC, and it’s not always easy to make the switch to the other side of the line. But even as a right tackle, he’d provide some much-needed protection for Tony Romo.
10 Redskins	JULIO JONES, WR, Alabama The ‘Skins will take a long, hard look at the quarterbacks left on the board, but I’m not sure any of them will be what Washington coach Mike Shanahan is looking for. Because of his great size and ability to run after the catch, Jones would be a perfect fit in Shanahan’s West Coast offense. And man, can this guy run block!
11 Texans	PRINCE AMUKAMARA, CB, Nebraska The Texans desperately need help in the secondary. After Patrick Peterson, Amukamara is the best cornerback on the board.
12 Vikings	JAKE LOCKER, QB, Washington Locker could go anywhere from top 10 to second-round, but I think he’d be a great fit in Minnesota. His accuracy issues have been overblown (he didn’t have a great supporting cast at Washington, which is a big reason why his completion percentage was so low). There’s no doubting that Locker has a strong arm and great athleticism. Plus, he’s an outstanding leader and true winner. Sounds like a pretty good pick to lead a franchise.
13 Lions	DA’QUAN BOWERS, DE, Clemson They won’t be able to get the defensive back they’re looking for this late in the first round, but Detroit can help out their struggling secondary by upgrading their pass rush. Bowers has some risk because of a bum knee, but he also has the rare size and athleticism to be a double-digit sack guy.
14 Rams	COREY LIUGET, DT, Illinois I think Liuget is one of the most overlooked players in this draft, a guy capable of being a force breaking into opposing backfields. He’d be a great fit next to Chris Long on the Rams’ defensive line.
15 Dolphins	MIKE POUNCEY, G/C, Florida The Dolphins have some issues on the interior of their offensive line. Pouncey’s brother, Maurkice, was the best offensive rookie in football last year, starring as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ center. Mike could make a similar impact for Miami.
16 Jaguars	CHRISTIAN PONDER, QB, Florida State The Jags have wanted to replace David Garrard with more of a pure passer under center. Ponder would be a top 10 pick if he hadn’t been injured so often the past two years. He’s the kind of smart, accurate QB Jacksonville has been searching for.
17 Patriots	ANTHONY CASTONZO, OT, Boston College I’m not sure if Castonzo will last this long, but the Pats would love it if he did. He could spend a year as Matt Light’s understudy, then take over as one of Tom Brady’s key pass protectors in another year or two.
18 Chargers	CAMERON JORDAN, DE, California The Chargers could use some help on their injury-plagued defensive line, and Jordan is a perfect fit. He’s the best 3-4 defensive end available in this draft, and that’s the formation the Chargers play.
19 Giants	GABE CARIMI, OT, Wisconsin Carimi is an absolute crushing run blocker who can hold his own in pass protection. With the Giants’ offensive line struggling with injuries as they get older, Carimi is the kind of young talent they need.
20 Bucs	ALDON SMITH, DE, Missouri The Bucs’ biggest weakness is their pass rush, but Smith could fix that. He’s a quick, athletic defensive end who could make a big difference getting to the quarterback.
21 Chiefs	PHIL TAYLOR, NT, Baylor Finding a nose tackle for a 3-4 defense is tough. They play have to have the size and athleticism to eat up blockers and stuff the entire middle of the opposing offensive line. Taylor can do just that. There are concerns over a foot injury, but as the best pure nose tackle available, he’s worth the risk for K.C.
22 Colts	J.J. WATT, DT/DE, Wisconsin Watt would play mostly defensive tackle in Indy. He has the kind of football smarts and non-stop motor that would fit right in with the Colts, not to mention help their hapless run defense.
23 Eagles	JIMMY SMITH, CB, Colorado There are some concerns about his attitude, but no one doubts Smith’s talent. He has great size, speed, and athleticism, as well as that supreme confidence that cornerbacks need. If he teamed up with Asante Samuel in Philly, the Eagles will be awfully tough to throw against.
24 Saints	RYAN KERRIGAN, DE, Purdue New Orleans is looking to upgrade their front seven, and Kerrigan would fit nicely. He could play across from Will Smith on the defensive line and really upgrade the Saints’ pass rush and run defense.
25 Seahawks	AARON WILLIAMS, CB, Texas The Seahawks’ pass defense was terrible last year, but Williams could help. He’s better playing against slot receivers rather than on the outside, and Williams might eventually move to safety. But really, Seattle’s secondary could use help just about everywhere.
26 Ravens	MUHAMMAD WILKERSON, DT/DE, Temple The rich get richer here. The Ravens already have one of the best defensive linemen in football in Haloti Ngata. Wilkerson could make that line even better. He’s a 300-pounder with the kind of versatility that the Ravens love.
27 Falcons	TORREY SMITH, WR, Maryland The Falcons desperately need another receiving option to go with Roddy White. Smith has the size, rare speed, and playmaking ability that will make teams think twice about double-teaming White.
28 Patriots	CAMERON HEYWARD, DT/DE, Ohio State With no elite pass rushers left on the board, the Pats get the next best thing in Heyward. He’d be a big help for Vince Wilfork on New England’s injury-prone defensive line. Wilfork could go back to playing nose tackle fulltime while Heyward takes over at defensive end.
29 Bears	NATE SOLDER, OT, Colorado Solder is a rare athlete. He’s 6’ 8”, 300 pounds and runs as well as a lot of tight ends. The Bears need help across the offensive line, especially when it comes to protecting Jay Cutler. And pass protection is Solder’s specialty.
30 Jets	ADRIAN CLAYBORN, DE/DT, Iowa The Jets need to get younger on the defensive line, and Clayborn would be a great fit. He’s better as a run-stopper, but he also has the ability to beat blockers and get to the quarterback every once in awhile.
31 Steelers	DANNY WATKINS, OT/G, Baylor The Steelers need to add some youth and talent to the offensive line. Watkins could play a number of spots on the front five. He can protect the passer, and he has the kind of vicious, run-blocking attitude that the Steelers love.
32 Packers	AKEEM AYERS, LB, UCLA Ayers has phenomenal athleticism; the question is whether he has the instincts to be a playmaker in the NFL. The defending Super Bowl champs can afford to take a chance on him. Ayers could end up being a nice upgrade for their linebacking corps.